Capler wrote:With the demise of the flying dutchman at Kings Island, many of the B&M stand-ups , and one of the two Hurlers. There is no way the three above mentioned coasters can survive much longer. The big question for Carowinds will be, which will go first?
I honestly don't think Vortex will get a conversion. From what I have read, the new versions are just not that popular. Hurler will be converted at some point.
The demise of Firehawk was easily predicted. It had maintenance issues and was down quite a bit. The only reason it had lines when open was b/c of the poor capacity. FYI, it's max capacity was actually better than Nighthawk b/c it had the duel stations. It is 1018M model, which Batwing at SFA also is, while Nighthawk is the 843M model. There is also the motion Vekoma is no longer supporting the Vekoma Dutchman, they have a new flyer model out. The Dutchman are going to be like all the Enterprises which have been going into rapid extinction the last few years leaving 4 parks in the last 2 seasons. Finding parts is getting hard and the maintenance cost adding up for rides that are okay but not super popular. There also is the Zamperla Endeavour as a waiting replacement which is what KY Kingdom did.
Now, talking about what Cedar Fair may be gleaned from their comments on their Q2 conf call.
"We have identified opportunities where we may take advantage of additional cost savings in the future whether by adjusting the operating calendar based on demand, investing in technology to more effectively and efficiently manage the scheduling of our 45,000 seasonal employees or by eliminating cost related to ride and attractions that have run their course and are no longer as popular with our guests. All of these things are being reviewed and discussed at great lengths as we work to build our 2019 park-level business plans
Vortex is not popular, people are not generally really hyped on stand ups and it was never one of the better ones. Vortex is in a tight space so only something really small could be a replacement. The conversion option is on the table b/c it's cheap and it would not reduce the coaster count, which is something CF is not likely to do while trying to grow one of their priority investment parks. I would say the conversion is likely though it still won't be a great ride, it will be better.
On Hurler I see it getting converted. CF had great success with both this year being ranked top 50 coasters by GTA. The question is do they convert it first and then build a GCI or do they build the GCI first. I think this will be determined by the maintenance costs. Wood coasters and especially older ones rack up maintenance costs.